Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 61 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 1 July 2026 at 16:30 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
No stronger detection stands among the 18 recorded within 20 km of this point since 15 March 2026 — one other scored the same. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 4 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 1 at 12:21PM EDT until July 1 at 12:30PM EDT by NWS Gaylord MI
Urban PEI: 15,218 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
How we know
9 recorded sources include NOAA; independence is not established by this count.
Our own score for this event is 34 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 34 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.91/1 |
| Coordinates | 44.4681, -85.2322 |
| Nearest City | Traverse City (45 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 15.2K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-01T16:21:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.09bf6149823c867af47fdf186519d7e2 |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-07-01T16:21:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-07-01T16:23:26.306Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Antrim, MI; Charlevoix, MI; Crawford, MI; Kalkaska, MI; Otsego, MI; Mason, MI; Antrim, MI; Charlevoix, MI; Cheboygan, MI; Crawford, MI; Kalkaska, MI; Montmorency, MI; Oscoda, MI; Otsego, MI and 3 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 1 at 12:21PM EDT until July 1 at 12:30PM EDT by NWS Gaylord MI |
| Expires | 2026-07-01T12:30:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Gaylord MI |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 6 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.09bf6149823c867af47fdf186519d7e2085fbebc.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.c22a2d1cb63af5b3b5a31c17bcd8b9564f2019a2.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.c82a907e5f9ada497a7d875b27e6355b0380375b.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.f88f6833ea4af89a086b27316c0ca5c313f52eef.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.602037095fe15b01c481842ae819b8c367859a70.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.c1ce45ca0b38abcd56113fa604f3c8d73dd6b041.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | D |
| Iem City | Mancelona |
| Iem County | Antrim |
| Iem State | MI |
| Iem Wfo | APX |
| Iem Remark | Trees down in Mancelona. |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_G_44.730_-85.570_1782920520000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1782920520000,"latitude":44.73,"longitude":-85.57},{"id":"iem_G_44.960_-85.650_1782920100000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1782920100000,"latitude":44.96,"longitude":-85.65},{"id":"iem_D_45.030_-85.600_1782919680000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1782919680000,"latitude":45.03,"longitude":-85.6},{"id":"iem_M_44.790_-85.630_1782919620000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1782919620000,"latitude":44.79,"longitude":-85.63},{"id":"iem_M_45.020_-85.760_1782919440000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1782919440000,"latitude":45.02,"longitude":-85.76},{"id":"iem_M_44.790_-85.630_1782919920000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1782919920000,"latitude":44.79,"longitude":-85.63},{"id":"iem_M_44.960_-85.650_1782919800000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1782919800000,"latitude":44.96,"longitude":-85.65},{"id":"iem_D_44.900_-85.060_1782922140000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1782922140000,"latitude":44.9,"longitude":-85.06}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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